Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, UA 658 at 16:13, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 658 United	PNS 16:13	ORD 18:48	36%	19%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	5h 45m	94%	72%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → ORD 11:42AA 2534	6h 20m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	4h 10m	88%	70%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	5h 34m	96%	70%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	53m Houston	IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124	5h 29m	86%	65%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	6h 13m	98%	63%
American Details →	PNS 15:58 → DFW 18:03AA 2328	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → ORD 00:00 +1AA 1894	8h 02m	95%	63%
American Details →	PNS 06:35 → DCA 09:41AA 5424 · flown by PSA	1h 36m Washington	DCA 11:17 → ORD 12:26AA 2023	5h 51m	85%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 15:03 → MIA 17:47AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Miami	MIA 18:51 → ORD 21:17AA 2194	6h 14m	72%	40%
American Details →	PNS 15:58 → DFW 18:03AA 2328	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:00 → ORD 21:28AA 2656	5h 30m	67%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON