Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4714 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4714 PVD 05:54 → BWI 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2785 PVD 17:44 → BWI 19:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4714 Southwest	PVD 05:54	BWI 07:30	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 3589 Southwest	PVD 07:10	BWI 08:47	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 3539 Southwest	PVD 08:50	BWI 10:26	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3409 Southwest	PVD 12:34	BWI 14:11	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 1180 Southwest	PVD 16:29	BWI 18:06	21%	6%	1.9%	no record
WN 2785 Southwest	PVD 17:44	BWI 19:22	22%	7%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON