Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1569 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1569 PVD 05:53 → CLT 08:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3010 PVD 16:21 → CLT 18:39 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1569 American Flight history →	PVD 05:53	CLT 08:11	6%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 3269 American	PVD 10:12	CLT 12:40	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1877 American Flight history →	PVD 13:53	CLT 16:16	20%	5%	1.2%	81%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	PVD 19:24	CLT 21:44	24%	8%	2.1%	75%
AA 3010 American	PVD 16:21	CLT 18:39	25%	6%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON