Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: G7 4541 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day G7 4541 PVD 05:40 → IAD 07:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4449 PVD 19:44 → IAD 21:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4541 GoJet	PVD 05:40	IAD 07:20	7%	3%	1.1%	no record
G7 4497 GoJet	PVD 11:11	IAD 12:54	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 6159 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	PVD 14:46	IAD 16:52	20%	8%	1.9%	79%
G7 4449 GoJet	PVD 19:44	IAD 21:25	20%	6%	4.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON