Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 360 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 360 PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5251 PVD 16:44 → ORD 18:34 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	16%	7%	2.1%	81%
OO 5747 SkyWest	PVD 09:51	ORD 11:47	25%	10%	2.7%	no record
AA 3771 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PVD 19:59	ORD 21:45	35%	11%	7.0%	84%worse than usual
UA 1935 United	PVD 11:34	ORD 13:13	35%	16%	2.3%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	PVD 12:23	ORD 14:05	42%	19%	7.4%	no record
OO 5251 SkyWest	PVD 16:44	ORD 18:34	43%	20%	5.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON