Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1585 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1585 PVD 07:43 → PHL 09:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5189 PVD 19:31 → PHL 21:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1585 American	PVD 07:43	PHL 09:17	10%	4%	1.3%	no record
OH 5362 PSA	PVD 06:18	PHL 07:57	10%	5%	3.3%	no record
OH 5251 PSA	PVD 10:48	PHL 12:20	17%	6%	2.9%	no record
OH 5513 PSA	PVD 16:00	PHL 17:34	29%	10%	4.8%	no record
AA 5189 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 19:31	PHL 21:04	31%	11%	5.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON