tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 426 Delta Flight history → PWM 12:40 DTW 14:40 18% 5% 0.8% 84%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history → PWM 16:52 DTW 18:54 25% 8% 0.8% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 56m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:59 → DCA 07:57AA 2712 2h 48m Washington DCA 10:45 → DTW 12:32AA 4616 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:57 → CLT 08:30AA 2966 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 11:24 → DTW 13:08AA 1683 7h 11m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:13 → IAD 07:17UA 3522 · flown by Republic 59m Dulles IAD 08:16 → DTW 09:55UA 6137 · flown by Mesa 4h 42m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:33 → PHL 07:29AA 2951 1h 15m Philadelphia PHL 08:44 → DTW 10:35AA 5480 · flown by PSA 5h 02m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → DTW 18:35DL 1476 6h 48m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262 7h 16m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:50 → ORD 08:55AA 4499 · flown by Republic 1h 52m Chicago ORD 10:47 → DTW 13:15AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 6h 25m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:01 → ORD 18:50UA 1828 54m Chicago ORD 19:44 → DTW 22:06UA 768 5h 05m 57% 31%
DeltaDetails → PWM 16:42 → JFK 18:08DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 54m New York JFK 19:02 → DTW 20:53DL 1253 4h 11m 54% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON