Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3522 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 3522 PWM 05:13 → IAD 07:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 3582 PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3522 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 05:13	IAD 07:17	6%	2%	1.0%	95%
YX 3494 Republic	PWM 09:42	IAD 11:47	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 3453 Republic	PWM 14:37	IAD 16:50	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 3582 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 19:16	IAD 21:14	17%	5%	1.5%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON