Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: B6 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–39%.

Safest bet that day B6 307 PWM 06:00 → JFK 07:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 5399 PWM 16:42 → JFK 18:09 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 307 JetBlue Flight history →	PWM 06:00	JFK 07:19	11%	5%	2.0%	94%
DL 5277 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PWM 06:29	JFK 07:52	12%	6%	2.8%	92%
DL 5399 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PWM 16:42	JFK 18:09	39%	22%	7.6%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON