Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2170 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2170 PWM 05:54 → ORD 07:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1828 PWM 17:01 → ORD 18:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2170 United	PWM 05:54	ORD 07:52	11%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:50	ORD 08:55	12%	4%	2.4%	89%
YX 3688 Republic	PWM 07:56	ORD 10:01	13%	4%	2.1%	no record
YX 4478 Republic	PWM 17:47	ORD 19:53	28%	13%	2.2%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:38	ORD 13:38	29%	17%	4.5%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 13:05	ORD 15:01	31%	13%	3.3%	92%worse than usual
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:01	ORD 18:50	38%	17%	1.4%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON