tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:48, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 5h 09m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:21UA 1767 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:06 → CLT 15:20UA 2231 6h 20m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 7h 13m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → RAP 06:01 → DFW 09:23AA 4277 · flown by Envoy 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:21 → CLT 16:44AA 1980 8h 43m 98% 66%
AmericanDetails → RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:05 → CLT 20:45AA 937 8h 27m 100% 66%
UnitedDetails → RAP 12:35 → DEN 14:14UA 5742 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Denver DEN 16:08 → CLT 21:24UA 616 6h 49m 90% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RAP 11:52 → MSP 14:22DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest 53m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 4h 57m 73% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON