Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 5576 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39%.

Safest bet that day UA 5576 RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5947 RAP 16:36 → DEN 18:20 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5576 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 05:00	DEN 06:37	10%	7%	4.3%	89%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	RAP 07:00	DEN 08:21	17%	7%	2.2%	85%
UA 5708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 10:23	DEN 12:00	21%	10%	4.0%	78%
UA 1598 United	RAP 11:19	DEN 12:54	24%	11%	3.1%	no record
UA 5742 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 12:35	DEN 14:14	24%	11%	3.9%	90%worse than usual
UA 5884 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 08:37	DEN 09:59	25%	10%	3.1%	74%
UA 5671 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 17:53	DEN 19:37	39%	21%	10.4%	77%worse than usual
UA 5947 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 16:36	DEN 18:20	39%	19%	9.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON