Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4808 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4808 RDU 06:29 → BNA 07:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5152 RDU 17:55 → BNA 18:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4808 Southwest	RDU 06:29	BNA 07:14	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2511 Southwest	RDU 10:47	BNA 11:29	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 08:16	BNA 08:56	9%	3%	1.4%	83%
AA 4762 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:24	BNA 10:18	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
WN 1546 Southwest	RDU 20:44	BNA 21:29	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
YX 4421 Republic	RDU 17:11	BNA 18:05	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 733 Southwest	RDU 16:19	BNA 17:05	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5152 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 17:55	BNA 18:39	27%	7%	1.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON