Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1903 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1903 RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2688 RDU 13:00 → CLT 13:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1903 American Flight history →	RDU 05:01	CLT 06:00	9%	2%	0.9%	95%
AA 1753 American	RDU 09:22	CLT 10:35	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1768 American	RDU 11:15	CLT 12:29	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 683 American Flight history →	RDU 07:33	CLT 08:39	15%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	RDU 21:32	CLT 22:48	20%	6%	0.9%	72%
AA 3072 American	RDU 14:57	CLT 16:01	24%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 942 American	RDU 19:13	CLT 20:16	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2975 American	RDU 16:27	CLT 17:38	25%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	RDU 13:00	CLT 13:55	26%	4%	0.9%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON