Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1388 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1388 RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1407 RDU 18:45 → DTW 20:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1388 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:33	DTW 07:16	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:54	DTW 11:36	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
F9 4937 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 10:00	DTW 11:54	13%	6%	1.0%	88%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	RDU 13:04	DTW 14:52	14%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:45	DTW 20:36	24%	11%	1.5%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON