Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1383 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1383 RDU 06:26 → IAH 08:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1741 RDU 17:28 → IAH 19:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1383 United Flight history →	RDU 06:26	IAH 08:27	13%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 6296 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	RDU 12:54	IAH 14:58	18%	7%	1.5%	89%
UA 2407 United Flight history →	RDU 16:51	IAH 18:58	22%	6%	0.8%	83%
F9 1741 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 17:28	IAH 19:40	30%	10%	1.2%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 07:30 → IAH 08:35DL 1585	4h 25m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON