tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 11:55, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → RDU 11:55 IND 13:48 12% 4% 1.2% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 08:02 → IND 09:40DL 3125 4h 30m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:07 → IND 11:46DL 2952 5h 26m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → IND 13:32DL 3013 6h 02m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:00 → DCA 07:13AA 2985 3h 10m Washington DCA 10:23 → IND 12:53AA 4701 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 5h 21m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 13m Dulles IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13UA 3561 · flown by Republic 4h 13m 94% 85%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 2h 21m Charlotte CLT 08:21 → IND 10:02AA 821 5h 01m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:27 → ATL 20:03DL 2600 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 6h 14m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → RDU 14:15 → ATL 15:49F9 1669 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:11 → IND 18:55F9 2497 4h 40m 74% 48%
DeltaDetails → RDU 14:55 → LGA 16:28DL 5184 · flown by Endeavor 1h 40m New York LGA 18:08 → IND 20:32DL 5635 · flown by Republic 5h 37m 74% 39%
AmericanDetails → RDU 16:05 → LGA 18:07AA 4666 · flown by Republic 49m New York LGA 18:56 → IND 21:20AA 4427 · flown by Republic 5h 15m 51% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON