tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 462 Delta Flight history → RDU 18:58 LAX 21:20 21% 5% 0.7% 86%
AA 2299 American RDU 20:25 LAX 22:50 31% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 2h 24m Dulles IAD 09:35 → LAX 12:16UA 657 9h 16m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337 1h 58m Orlando MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504 8h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 42m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:11 → SEA 08:49DL 354 3h 46m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 12h 12m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 9h 19m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898 7h 38m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 1h 53m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 03m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 08:17 → PHX 09:48AA 2601 51m Phoenix PHX 10:39 → LAX 12:15AA 2027 6h 58m 65% 50%
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:27 → ATL 20:03DL 2600 47m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331 7h 05m 61% 46%
UnitedDetails → RDU 11:30 → ORD 12:59UA 5732 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 13:56 → LAX 16:19UA 374 7h 49m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON