Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 5230 at 09:21, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 09:21	MCI 11:08	11%	5%	1.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	5h 28m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:55 → MCI 11:26DL 1349	6h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MCI 15:10DL 1443	6h 12m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 11m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	5h 51m	98%	84%
American Details →	RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 08:13 → MCI 09:48AA 1619	5h 47m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 12:11 → MCI 13:20DL 2747	6h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:10 → SLC 09:42DL 580	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → MCI 14:46DL 2882	8h 36m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 09:54 → DTW 11:36DL 1427	49m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	4h 30m	73%	61%
Delta Details →	RDU 14:09 → JFK 15:39DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m New York	JFK 16:41 → MCI 18:56DL 5408 · flown by Endeavor	5h 47m	67%	42%
American Details →	RDU 17:04 → DFW 19:22AA 2091	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:20 → MCI 22:11AA 1029	6h 07m	61%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON