Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1337 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1337 RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1111 RDU 14:31 → MCO 16:32 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	6%	2%	1.0%	91%
WN 4764 Southwest	RDU 07:35	MCO 09:24	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
MX 2070 Breeze	RDU 06:57	MCO 08:48	13%	4%	1.8%	no record
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:26	MCO 13:15	14%	4%	1.1%	84%
WN 3566 Southwest	RDU 12:36	MCO 14:29	14%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2971 Southwest	RDU 19:09	MCO 20:59	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 1319 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:03	MCO 19:05	21%	8%	1.5%	68%
MX 1400 Breeze	RDU 15:16	MCO 17:10	21%	8%	2.3%	no record
MX 1404 Breeze	RDU 21:04	MCO 22:46	25%	8%	1.9%	no record
F9 1233 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 21:26	MCO 23:23	29%	11%	1.5%	68%
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:31	MCO 16:32	29%	12%	1.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON