Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2781 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 05:50 → PHL 07:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest F9 2072 RDU 14:49 → PHL 16:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 05:50	PHL 07:21	11%	4%	1.5%	82%
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 06:58	PHL 08:28	11%	5%	1.5%	80%
AA 1759 American	RDU 10:45	PHL 12:21	19%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 08:18	PHL 09:54	23%	8%	1.9%	75%
AA 3152 American	RDU 13:10	PHL 14:47	27%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:26	PHL 17:09	28%	13%	2.4%	84%worse than usual
YX 4752 Republic	RDU 19:12	PHL 20:49	28%	10%	2.1%	no record
F9 4844 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 22:00	PHL 23:36	31%	14%	1.9%	74%
AA 1441 American Flight history →	RDU 17:59	PHL 19:35	38%	15%	1.0%	55%
F9 2072 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:49	PHL 16:25	39%	15%	1.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON