Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1279 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1279 RDU 06:25 → TPA 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2729 RDU 16:44 → TPA 18:56 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:25	TPA 08:16	6%	2%	1.0%	94%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:07	TPA 20:03	20%	7%	1.2%	76%
MX 2366 Breeze	RDU 15:18	TPA 17:21	21%	7%	2.2%	no record
MX 866 Breeze	RDU 21:00	TPA 23:06	21%	8%	2.3%	no record
WN 3605 Southwest	RDU 17:49	TPA 19:53	23%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 2729 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 16:44	TPA 18:56	31%	9%	2.9%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON