Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: G7 4471 at 10:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day G7 4471 RIC 10:44 → IAD 12:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4515 RIC 17:09 → IAD 18:16 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4471 GoJet	RIC 10:44	IAD 12:00	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
G7 4460 GoJet	RIC 06:34	IAD 07:31	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
C5 4376 CommuteAir	RIC 19:58	IAD 20:55	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
G7 4515 GoJet	RIC 17:09	IAD 18:16	21%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON