Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5822 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 5822 RIC 05:57 → LGA 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest YX 5785 RIC 17:26 → LGA 18:51 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 05:57	LGA 07:22	6%	4%	2.8%	79%
YX 4474 Republic	RIC 06:01	LGA 07:26	8%	4%	2.7%	no record
YX 5799 Republic	RIC 10:00	LGA 11:25	16%	8%	3.2%	no record
AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 10:53	LGA 12:18	18%	8%	3.3%	93%worse than usual
9E 5275 Endeavor	RIC 13:16	LGA 14:46	30%	18%	4.1%	no record
YX 4622 Republic	RIC 13:39	LGA 15:03	31%	16%	5.8%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:56	LGA 20:29	45%	32%	9.8%	62%
YX 5784 Republic	RIC 19:49	LGA 21:14	46%	31%	11.2%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	RIC 17:26	LGA 18:51	47%	29%	10.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON