Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1657 at 06:07, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1657 Southwest	RNO 06:07	BUR 07:32	5%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 09:41 → SLC 12:13DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	RNO 06:20 → SLC 08:51DL 1650	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	97%	87%
United Details →	RNO 05:59 → SFO 07:34UA 1954	59m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363	3h 58m	95%	84%
United Details →	RNO 13:57 → SFO 15:32UA 2279	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 18:35 → BUR 20:04UA 2001	6h 07m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	RNO 17:12 → SLC 19:50DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	4h 36m	92%	72%
United Details →	RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764	6h 04m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 19:17 → BUR 21:52AS 727	7h 06m	96%	68%
Alaska Details →	RNO 09:35 → SEA 11:38AS 2179 · flown by Horizon	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 13:51 → BUR 16:19AS 529	6h 44m	91%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	RNO 08:43 → LAS 10:15F9 4248	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 11:15 → BUR 12:33F9 4107	3h 50m	75%	56%
United Details →	RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	3h 39m	68%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON