Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1463 Southwest	RNO 06:54	LGB 08:30	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3588 Southwest	RNO 19:24	LGB 20:59	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 09:41 → SLC 12:13DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RNO 06:20 → SLC 08:51DL 1650	2h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	5h 39m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RNO 17:12 → SLC 19:50DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:43 → LGB 21:43DL 1167	4h 31m	90%	76%
Alaska Details →	RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 18:15 → LGB 20:55AS 1310	6h 09m	88%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON