Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3456 at 18:17, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3456 Southwest	RNO 18:17	SJC 19:35	13%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 06:20 → SLC 08:51DL 1650	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 15m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	95%	85%
Alaska Details →	RNO 12:07 → PDX 13:56AS 2395 · flown by Horizon	3h 52m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SJC 19:44AS 345	7h 37m	98%	84%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:50 → SJC 13:36UA 1256	8h 06m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:41 → SLC 12:13DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	6h 23m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	3h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 16:04 → SJC 17:24DL 1359	6h 51m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	RNO 17:12 → SLC 19:50DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	6h 27m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	RNO 16:15 → LAX 17:50DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 20:49 → SJC 22:09DL 1420	5h 54m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	RNO 08:43 → LAS 10:15F9 4248	56m Las Vegas	LAS 11:11 → SJC 13:01F9 4103	4h 18m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON