Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: G7 4602 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day G7 4602 ROC 06:07 → EWR 07:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4603 ROC 14:45 → EWR 16:06 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4602 GoJet	ROC 06:07	EWR 07:27	9%	3%	2.7%	no record
YX 3578 Republic	ROC 18:49	EWR 20:18	35%	16%	7.9%	no record
G7 4603 GoJet	ROC 14:45	EWR 16:06	36%	13%	4.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON