Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YV 4073 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day YV 4073 ROC 06:08 → IAD 07:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4608 ROC 14:58 → IAD 16:37 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 4073 Mesa	ROC 06:08	IAD 07:30	7%	4%	1.6%	no record
G7 4483 GoJet	ROC 10:17	IAD 11:38	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 4874 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ROC 19:59	IAD 21:34	17%	4%	1.6%	87%
G7 4608 GoJet	ROC 14:58	IAD 16:37	17%	4%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON