Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5311 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 5311 ROC 05:51 → LGA 07:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 5054 ROC 18:11 → LGA 19:32 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5311 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 05:51	LGA 07:12	9%	5%	2.7%	82%
9E 5298 Endeavor	ROC 12:56	LGA 14:25	29%	16%	4.2%	no record
DL 5054 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 18:11	LGA 19:32	46%	27%	8.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON