Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4634 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–40%.

Safest bet that day YX 4634 ROC 05:04 → ORD 06:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4634 Republic	ROC 05:04	ORD 06:18	5%	3%	2.4%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ROC 06:13	ORD 07:19	13%	5%	1.2%	75%
OO 5518 SkyWest	ROC 10:36	ORD 11:54	22%	12%	2.9%	no record
MQ 4192 Envoy	ROC 20:52	ORD 21:56	23%	8%	2.1%	no record
MQ 4191 Envoy	ROC 11:20	ORD 12:27	26%	7%	2.2%	no record
G7 4609 GoJet	ROC 12:44	ORD 13:46	30%	13%	4.8%	no record
MQ 3443 Envoy	ROC 15:39	ORD 16:48	37%	13%	3.2%	no record
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 17:52	ORD 19:00	40%	18%	1.2%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON