tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1501 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1501 Southwest RSW 05:59 CMH 08:33 3% 1% 1.5% no record
WN 3606 Southwest RSW 20:54 CMH 23:28 27% 9% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 10:49 → CMH 12:25DL 1522 5h 40m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 08:32 → CMH 10:09DL 1479 4h 34m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 5h 35m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 11:20 → ATL 13:15DL 1089 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:36 → CMH 18:14DL 2786 6h 54m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 20:41 → CMH 22:18DL 1501 6h 37m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:59 → DFW 08:55AA 1281 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → CMH 14:36AA 1492 7h 37m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 18:27 → CMH 20:05DL 1545 6h 49m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → RSW 07:49 → CLT 09:50AA 2241 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 12:03 → CMH 13:25AA 3217 5h 36m 93% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 53m Atlanta ATL 18:27 → CMH 20:05DL 1545 4h 24m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON