tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 379 at 14:22, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 379 Delta Flight history → RSW 14:22 LGA 17:10 42% 20% 4.1% 76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513 5h 06m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 57m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 47m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → RSW 07:50 → CLT 09:48AA 2241 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 11:44 → LGA 13:44AA 2796 5h 54m 93% 60%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 02m 89% 59%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:51 → DFW 08:48AA 1281 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → LGA 15:37AA 2922 8h 46m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 2h 54m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 08m 91% 56%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:29 → LGA 23:36DL 520 7h 55m 98% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:56 → ORD 14:11AA 2437 58m Chicago ORD 15:09 → LGA 18:43AA 456 6h 47m 65% 25%
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:09 → ORD 19:23AA 2561 57m Chicago ORD 20:20 → LGA 23:29AA 1166 6h 20m 54% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON