Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2361 SAN 16:24 → DFW 21:32 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	12%	4%	1.7%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	15%	5%	1.7%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	20%	6%	1.5%	84%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	25%	6%	1.7%	84%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:07	DFW 14:04	28%	4%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
AA 2034 American Flight history →	SAN 11:29	DFW 16:34	29%	9%	1.6%	76%
AS 689 Alaska	SAN 17:48	DFW 22:45	29%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2266 American	SAN 18:57	DFW 23:57	31%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 2009 American	SAN 12:32	DFW 17:38	32%	9%	1.7%	no record
AA 1770 American	SAN 15:11	DFW 20:12	35%	10%	1.7%	no record
AA 638 American	SAN 15:19	DFW 20:27	35%	10%	1.7%	no record
F9 1770 Frontier	SAN 18:48	DFW 23:44	37%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 2361 American Flight history →	SAN 16:24	DFW 21:32	38%	11%	1.6%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON