tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 254 at 19:44, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 254 Southwest SAN 19:44 ELP 22:40 34% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:54 → IAH 13:06UA 2760 1h 37m Houston IAH 14:43 → ELP 15:59UA 6217 · flown by Mesa 7h 05m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:23 → IAH 17:35UA 2237 2h 11m Houston IAH 19:46 → ELP 21:09UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 7h 46m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 10m Houston IAH 21:41 → ELP 23:04UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 54m 82% 67%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:52 → ELP 15:51AA 2418 7h 36m 95% 60%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:55 → ELP 16:44AA 690 7h 44m 95% 58%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 38m 95% 57%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:29 → DFW 16:34AA 2034 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:04 → ELP 18:55AA 555 6h 26m 83% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:14 → IAH 15:48UA 1980 51m Houston IAH 16:39 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 48m 62% 48%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:24 → DFW 21:32AA 2361 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → ELP 23:46AA 1607 6h 22m 73% 44%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:19 → PHX 17:44AA 1951 1h 06m Phoenix PHX 18:50 → ELP 21:16AA 2908 3h 57m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON