Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4998 at 09:42 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4998 SAN 09:42 → HNL 12:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 815 SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4998 Southwest	SAN 09:42	HNL 12:51	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 828 Alaska	SAN 17:12	HNL 20:19	30%	7%	2.0%	no record
WN 4224 Southwest	SAN 18:24	HNL 21:26	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 94 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:06	HNL 14:12	38%	7%	1.8%	77%worse than usual
AS 815 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:07	HNL 12:18	40%	7%	1.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 23m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	8h 49m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 03m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON