Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 222 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:37	KOA 14:26	22%	4%	0.6%	96%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → KOA 21:43UA 1723	11h 04m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 14:13AS 94	3h 17m Honolulu	HNL 17:30 → KOA 18:16AS 1158	10h 10m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:00 → OGG 13:46AS 232	2h 08m Kahului	OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28AS 1250	8h 28m	95%	74%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	9h 54m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:08 → SEA 14:54AS 1368	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 17:49 → KOA 20:38AS 238	11h 30m	91%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 14:13AS 94	1h 01m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	7h 55m	62%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON