Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2026 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2026 SAN 07:12 → LAS 08:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1326 SAN 20:51 → LAS 22:21 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2026 Southwest	SAN 07:12	LAS 08:35	17%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 1848 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:51	LAS 10:16	21%	3%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
WN 4235 Southwest	SAN 22:36	LAS 23:58	25%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 3323 SkyWest	SAN 21:58	LAS 23:25	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 164 Southwest	SAN 21:11	LAS 22:34	27%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 2034 Southwest	SAN 18:45	LAS 20:08	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
WN 1751 Southwest	SAN 11:23	LAS 12:45	30%	4%	1.0%	no record
QX 2481 Horizon	SAN 18:09	LAS 19:34	30%	10%	2.1%	no record
QX 2241 Horizon	SAN 15:51	LAS 17:20	30%	9%	1.7%	no record
WN 1531 Southwest	SAN 20:01	LAS 21:24	31%	9%	1.1%	no record
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SAN 16:56	LAS 18:21	32%	10%	1.8%	59%
WN 1686 Southwest	SAN 13:08	LAS 14:30	32%	7%	1.1%	no record
QX 2165 Horizon	SAN 09:01	LAS 10:26	32%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 1943 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:28	LAS 17:50	33%	9%	1.1%	59%
WN 2356 Southwest	SAN 12:12	LAS 13:35	33%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 15:47	LAS 17:14	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 2084 Southwest	SAN 13:58	LAS 15:20	33%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 4230 Southwest	SAN 15:23	LAS 16:45	34%	9%	1.1%	no record
AS 2068 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SAN 11:44	LAS 13:10	35%	7%	1.7%	65%
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 20:51	LAS 22:21	41%	15%	2.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON