Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 13:39, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 220 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:05	LIH 11:28	21%	4%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 47m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 52m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 14:13AS 94	3h 01m Honolulu	HNL 17:14 → LIH 18:08AS 1143	10h 02m	98%	74%
United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	1h 36m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	9h 03m	86%	71%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 59m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:11AS 1113	10h 04m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:08 → SEA 14:54AS 1368	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	12h 17m	91%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 14:13AS 94	1h 04m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:11AS 1113	8h 05m	66%	48%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	51m Honolulu	HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083	7h 56m	46%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON