tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 36 Alaska SAN 15:30 MCI 20:39 28% 5% 2.1% no record
WN 251 Southwest SAN 18:19 MCI 23:33 29% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → MCI 14:46DL 2882 6h 31m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 54m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 2h 45m Portland PDX 12:14 → MCI 17:35AS 225 8h 45m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:09 → MCI 18:54AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 8h 54m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 06m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 8h 39m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:09 → ATL 18:30DL 725 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → MCI 21:52DL 3023 8h 43m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 15m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 50m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903 5h 19m 72% 59%
DeltaDetails → SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540 48m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 7h 40m 75% 57%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 16:29 → MCI 22:15UA 1515 6h 36m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON