tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:15, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Milwaukee on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3271 Southwest SAN 13:34 MKE 19:32 26% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:09 → ATL 18:30DL 725 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → MKE 21:57DL 2388 8h 48m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:54 → IAH 13:06UA 2760 1h 32m Houston IAH 14:38 → MKE 17:35UA 6139 · flown by Mesa 7h 41m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 6h 49m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 9h 25m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 02m Detroit DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343 7h 47m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:28 → PHL 14:38AA 2093 1h 28m Philadelphia PHL 16:06 → MKE 17:32AA 5439 · flown by PSA 9h 04m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:23 → IAH 17:35UA 2237 2h 13m Houston IAH 19:48 → MKE 22:27UA 4774 · flown by SkyWest 8h 04m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 18:17 → MKE 19:34AA 3193 10h 44m 99% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 49m Salt Lake City SLC 17:07 → MKE 21:09DL 2619 5h 54m 70% 54%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:28 → LAS 17:50WN 1943 49m Las Vegas LAS 18:39 → MKE 00:10 +1WN 2342 5h 42m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON