tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:46, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MSO 12:25DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 5h 10m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 22:47 → MSO 00:21 +1DL 1824 6h 20m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 7h 23m 99% 61%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 24m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 8h 06m 95% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:36 → SEA 18:30AS 685 1h 04m Seattle SEA 19:34 → MSO 21:58AS 604 5h 22m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON