Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 483 SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 232 SAN 11:00 → OGG 13:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 483 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:55	OGG 21:55	19%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 623 Southwest	SAN 11:00	OGG 13:52	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 232 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:00	OGG 13:46	22%	5%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	7h 52m	89%	75%
United Details →	SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309	1h 18m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	8h 35m	88%	73%
United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	8h 38m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON