Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2309 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2309 SAN 06:57 → PHX 08:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2084 SAN 18:50 → PHX 20:22 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2309 Southwest	SAN 06:57	PHX 08:19	12%	2%	2.5%	no record
AA 1212 American	SAN 06:08	PHX 07:34	16%	5%	2.5%	no record
WN 4245 Southwest	SAN 07:57	PHX 09:19	20%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 4328 Southwest	SAN 09:55	PHX 11:16	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 3668 Southwest	SAN 11:41	PHX 13:01	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 3788 Southwest	SAN 22:15	PHX 23:36	27%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2226 American	SAN 10:03	PHX 11:30	30%	9%	1.2%	no record
QX 2224 Horizon	SAN 21:37	PHX 23:01	31%	8%	2.2%	no record
WN 833 Southwest	SAN 15:42	PHX 17:04	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 2109 Southwest	SAN 13:17	PHX 14:39	32%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4251 Southwest	SAN 20:40	PHX 22:01	32%	10%	1.0%	no record
OO 3144 SkyWest	SAN 07:52	PHX 09:18	32%	11%	4.0%	no record
AA 1851 American	SAN 13:05	PHX 14:31	34%	9%	1.1%	no record
WN 4710 Southwest	SAN 18:15	PHX 19:36	34%	10%	1.0%	no record
QX 2186 Horizon	SAN 17:19	PHX 18:43	34%	9%	1.9%	no record
WN 8504 Southwest	SAN 14:37	PHX 15:50	36%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 3401 Southwest	SAN 19:09	PHX 20:30	36%	10%	1.0%	no record
OO 3309 SkyWest	SAN 13:30	PHX 14:56	39%	11%	2.5%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:19	PHX 17:44	39%	11%	1.0%	74%worse than usual
AA 1862 American	SAN 19:12	PHX 20:38	40%	12%	1.1%	no record
F9 2084 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 18:50	PHX 20:22	44%	16%	1.2%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON