Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3689 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3689 SAN 06:50 → SMF 08:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2380 SAN 19:06 → SMF 20:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3689 Southwest	SAN 06:50	SMF 08:33	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2926 Southwest	SAN 08:21	SMF 10:04	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2857 Southwest	SAN 09:29	SMF 11:11	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2836 Southwest	SAN 10:59	SMF 12:41	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3252 SkyWest	SAN 08:50	SMF 10:37	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4269 Southwest	SAN 11:39	SMF 13:21	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:30	SMF 19:18	24%	7%	0.8%	80%
WN 4957 Southwest	SAN 12:57	SMF 14:40	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 428 Alaska	SAN 20:39	SMF 22:19	26%	7%	1.2%	no record
OO 3360 SkyWest	SAN 12:20	SMF 14:07	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
QX 2479 Horizon	SAN 11:11	SMF 12:52	27%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 652 Southwest	SAN 13:45	SMF 15:28	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 349 Alaska	SAN 15:54	SMF 17:39	28%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 3691 Southwest	SAN 15:30	SMF 17:13	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4272 Southwest	SAN 17:30	SMF 19:14	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4273 Southwest	SAN 20:53	SMF 22:36	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 4271 Southwest	SAN 16:27	SMF 18:11	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2380 Southwest	SAN 19:06	SMF 20:50	34%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON