Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 8888 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 8888 SAN 07:53 → TPA 15:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 518 SAN 10:37 → TPA 18:14 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 8888 Delta	SAN 07:53	TPA 15:26	16%	5%	2.1%	no record
WN 4662 Southwest	SAN 08:45	TPA 16:23	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 518 Alaska	SAN 10:37	TPA 18:14	30%	5%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SAN 08:51 → LAS 10:16WN 1848	1h 04m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → TPA 18:38WN 2709	6h 47m	90%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON