tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3701 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3701 Southwest SAT 05:09 BWI 09:27 3% 1% 1.1% no record
WN 4295 Southwest SAT 16:54 BWI 21:10 23% 8% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 41m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 8h 13m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 03m Houston IAH 07:40 → BWI 11:47UA 604 5h 17m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 55m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 32m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAT 04:51 → DFW 06:12AA 2616 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:26 → BWI 11:29AA 2314 5h 38m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 26m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 47m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 13:12 → BWI 14:47AA 2286 7h 46m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:34 → BWI 23:36DL 2670 6h 21m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 56m Houston IAH 18:21 → BWI 22:22UA 1830 5h 04m 70% 51%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:54 → ORD 16:42UA 2243 1h 07m Chicago ORD 17:49 → BWI 20:49UA 1557 5h 55m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON