Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1718 at 06:07, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1718 American Flight history →	SAT 06:07	DCA 10:22	9%	4%	1.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 04m Houston	IAH 07:41 → DCA 11:43UA 512	5h 13m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 43m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:57 → DCA 12:43DL 1798	6h 23m	98%	81%
American Details →	SAT 04:51 → DFW 06:12AA 2616	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:48 → DCA 13:03AA 1151	7h 12m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	9h 05m	98%	79%
American Details →	SAT 05:57 → DFW 07:18AA 2342	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:42 → DCA 13:34AA 1550	6h 37m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	7h 16m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 37m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAT 13:20 → BOS 18:47DL 816	1h 18m Boston	BOS 20:05 → DCA 22:03DL 5666 · flown by Republic	7h 43m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON