Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 469 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 469 SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 404 SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 469 United Flight history →	SAT 05:30	IAH 06:37	5%	2%	1.1%	96%
UA 1282 United Flight history →	SAT 11:46	IAH 12:56	15%	5%	0.7%	89%
YV 4053 Mesa	SAT 19:21	IAH 20:30	17%	8%	2.2%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	SAT 07:43	IAH 08:50	17%	4%	1.0%	86%
UA 3885 United	SAT 19:57	IAH 21:22	17%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 275 United	SAT 17:56	IAH 19:24	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
YV 6250 Mesa	SAT 15:23	IAH 16:26	23%	8%	1.6%	no record
UA 753 United Flight history →	SAT 14:59	IAH 16:10	24%	7%	0.9%	70%
UA 404 United Flight history →	SAT 16:18	IAH 17:25	25%	6%	0.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON