Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:16, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	SAT 13:17	JFK 18:01	33%	18%	2.2%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 00m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	54m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 43m	93%	78%
American Details →	SAT 04:51 → DFW 06:12AA 2616	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:46 → JFK 12:05AA 1766	6h 14m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 49m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 55m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	9h 17m	97%	72%
American Details →	SAT 19:02 → PHX 19:36AA 2973	2h 14m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	9h 45m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:55 → JFK 01:02 +1DL 624	7h 47m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAT 18:16 → ATL 21:54DL 1465	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	5h 34m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON